49er's Got Game

Unka Tim and I took the kids to their first NFL game. 49ers v NYJets. Quote of the day came from The Girlie:

Is Jet Favre on the New York Bretts?

Hath Frozen Over

My buddy Tim and I do a yearly football trip. As Michigan fans, we usually build the trip around a Wolverine game. This year we braved hostile territory to watch the game in the Horseshoe in Columbus. The following is the text conversation with my GirlFriend.

Mud: Officially behind enemy lines now. Going under gover … GPS pointing us toward The Bush Tavern for lunch … Or Capin’ Woodies Pub & Grub
Mud: In Columbus now … Toasting Tim (he’s 45 today) with more JW Blue before heading out to the Elevator Brewery and Draught Haus.
GF: Toast him for me too. Have fun! Is it snowing there?
Mud: Not at the moment. As we got closer to Columbus it got warmer … Which is appropo FOR HELL. I swear I just saw a flying monkey or two out the window.
GF: Why is it Hell?
Mud: Home of archrival THE Ohio State University … That’s why the ‘bhind enemy lines’ and ‘under cover’ ….
Mud: Big Ballroom Dancing competition at the convention cntr, too.
GF: I get that. Wasn’t sure if u had a bad personal experience or not.
Mud: Never been here before… Hell is grey (and scarlet) and a cold day in hell, btw.
Mud: Hell has a Westin. Tho this non-smoking room smells like smoke. Probably because THIS IS HELL.
GF: u crack me up. I usually like Westins. No duvet w big fluffy pillows?
Mud: Yep. Bed looks comfy. Little slice of heaven WHILE IN HELL.
Mud: K. All bundled up now. Heading out to that brewery. Gonna brave these hellish elements and walk six blocks.
Mud: This bar offers and MBA … A Masters of Beer Appreciation
Mud: Beef Sliders, Aztec Chicken Soup, and a six flight beer tasting.
Mud: btw, we counted four bail bonds places (one was on the corner of Rich St.), a violin repair shop, and the State Capitol bldg on a four block walk thru Hell.
Mud: While in Hell what better concert to go see than AC/DC.? Playing tonight down the street from here. Might try and scalp a few.
Mud: Tim ordered chicken wings. He’s practically in tears they are so hot. Probably because WE R IN HELL.
Mud: Four Vines on the list … So let Christian know his wine is served in Hell. I think he’d like that idea.
GF: You so need to save these texts & blog them. You are on such a roll!
Mud: Back at the hotel room… We needed more ‘Blue’ because everything is scarlet here.
Mud: There has to be a decent Cigar Bar in Hell. That and the place they make Hand Baskets.
GF: Do u think the Blue will clash with the color of your lips & fingertips?
Mud: Blue and Blui-ish whould work together.
Mud: btw, on the walk back we passed Akbar n Jeff at the bus stop across from the bail bonds place. Didn’t see the rabbit tho.
GF: I don’t know Akbar & Jeff
Mud: Matt Groening … Life in Hell comic strips … before The Simpson’s
Mud: Akbar n Jeff. Brotghers or lovers (or possibly both)…. And that silly rabbit
GF: I had school is Hell. Loved those!
Mud: They wore fez(s) and Charlie Brown shirts.
GF: No AC/DC tickets. Sold out. Maybe the place called Columbus Gold out near the airport. They have and OSU v.UoM whipcream wrestling extravaganza.
Mud: According to the ad. Hell has hot women.
GF: Just try to resist “the other delights”
Mud: I don’t think Tiajuana Brass is their house band. I know this because they are the opening act for AC/DC.
GF: Well if you run into Herb tell him that OH blows harder than he does.
Mud: Nice! ROTFLOL
Mud: Dinner at Barley’s. Motto: af few beers were brewed up over the years here….. I’m eating the Grilled Portebella Sandwich with Blackbeans and Rice. The Amber is well on the way to being one of the better Ambers. And from Hell, that statement hurts a lot.
GF: Who did Hot Lips Hoolihan marry? Tim can’t look it up either
Mud: Cl. Donal Penopscott
GF: U R WEIRD. I knew you’d know the answer.
Mud: We found a dive bar. Guinness on tap. Juke box crankin ‘three steps’ by Leonard Skynard. Stumbling distance to the hotel.
Mud: 99 Luftballoons and Petron shaken over ice…. Happy 45th, Tim.
Mud: Hell continued tomorrow for the big game. Night.
GF: Night.

NFL Week 2 Prognostication

There aren’t a lot of games I feel good about this week. When that happens I tend to take a lot of favorites. Not sure that is good, though.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+2.5)
Yes. I pick the Lions every week because I am a Detroit homer. However, I’m hanging my hat on the fact the home team is 16-5-1 against the spread in the last 22 games. Given the fact the over is 6-2 over the last 8 meetings in Detroit this is going to be a burner. The Lions have a decent offense and the defense is better than last week’s debacle (I hope). The Packers, I believe, come back to earth a bit and might struggle with their ground game this week as their Running Backs are hurt. Take the Lions and the points (and hope the Lions don’t fall behind by 21 points in the first quarter again).

San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) at Seattle Seahawks
A handful of telling stats with the first on being the 9ers are 2-9 against the spread over the last 11 NFC games and 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 games overall. Now, the Seahawks are 7-3 against the spread vs. the last 10 NFC opponents. Also, the Seahawks ALWAYS beat the 9ers at home. It is just a matter of figuring out by how much. So, I’m taking the Seahawks to beat the 9ers by a touchdown (or more).

New England Patriots (+2.5) at New York Jets
The return of Spy-Gate. When was the last time you saw the Patriots as an underdog? Brady means THAT much? Or does Favre mean THAT much? Hmmm. The stat I jumped to is that the favorite is 7-2-1 against the spread over the last 10 games between these two teams. Granted, most of those have come from a Brady lead Patriots team. But I’m sticking with the stat. The New York Brets win by more than a field goal.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+5.5)
First of all, the Steelers are simply a better organization. That translates into 7-1-1 against the spread in the last 9 games with the Browns. Plus, the road team has gone 7-3-1 against the spread in the last 11 meetings. This is just a hunch game for me where I don’t see the Browns doing much. I actually thing the spread could be higher. I’m taking the Steelers in a blowout on Sunday night.

My NFL Week 1 Prognostication Results

From my previous post before the weekend.....

Washington Redskins (+3) at New York Giants
Giants won the game 16-7. Got that one.
1-0

Tampa Bay Bucs (+3.5) at New Orleans Saints
I said I was taking the Bucs and the points. And that the "Saints might win the game, but I think these two divisional foes will keep it within the 3.5 points." Well, I was a half a point on the wrong side of the prognostication as the Saints won it by 4 points. Close, but no cigar....
1-1

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (+2.5)
No comment.
1-2

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (+3.5)
As I said, "the underdog in this matchup is 7-2 against in the last 9 games." Glad I stuck to the stats. Titans win 17-10.
2-2

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5)
"Take the Cards in a highly entertaining, high scoring game," I wrote. It wasn't the high scoring affair I thought it would be, but the prediction still worked in my favor. Cards won 23-13.
3-2

The MNF Games
Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at Green Bay Packers
The telling stats were: The road team is 10-2 against the spread and the underdog is 16-5 against the spread. So that is the Vikes and the Vikes. The stats will now show 10-3 and 16-6 and the Pack and the Pack. Got that one way wrong and Rodgers looked really, really good.
3-3

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+1.5)
I was wrong on the low scoring game but right on with "the Raiders are 8-22 against the spread in their last 30 home games." So, I finish week 1 prognostications with a 4-3 record. I can live with that ... for now.

The Detroit Lions to Win the Super Bowl

So, the NFL season kicks off tonight. For the first time in years, I will be watching it all by myself. I won’t be cooking in my kitchen watching on the counter-top tv. I won’t be sharing replays with the family. It undoubtedly will be just me (and hopefully another), an HD TV, some chips and salsa, and a couple of beers. And I’m o.k. with that. I’m very much looking forward to it.

So here we are… the office pool is filled out. My fantasy teams (yes, plural) are complete and the starters in place. And my beloved Detroit Lions poised to have a good season. I am so ready for some football.

Here is what I think on a few select games for the weekend….

Washington Redskins (+3) at New York Giants
Tonight’s game is an interesting one. I think the big telling stats are that the Skins are 2-6-2 against the spread on their Week 1 games over the last ten years. They don’t start seasons off too well and are facing the Super Bowl Champions. So, I’m taking the Giants.

Tampa Bay Bucs (+3.5) at New Orleans Saints
The Bucs have a better than average defense but a questionable offense, yet they managed a 9-7 record and played in last years playoffs. The Saints are a darling of the media this year and could be a very good team. I see two telling stats. The road team between these two teams is 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 games and the underdog is 9-3 against the spread in the last 12 games. That points to the Bucs and the Bucs. So, I’m taking the Bucs and the points. The Saints might win the game, but I think these two divisional foes will keep it within the 3.5 points.

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (+2.5)
I always take Detroit because I am THE fan and they are my team. Plus, the Falcons are starting a rookie QB. I think this game will be interesting to watch the Lion’s new, rookie RB Kevin Smith go against the Falcons new RB Michael Turner. I also think Detroit QB Jon Kitna is going to connect quite a bit with his two WRs Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson. Oh, yeah, I’ll be following this game closely.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (+3.5)
I like Jacksonville to do very well this year. Yet, these two played in Week 1 last year, as well. The Titans took that game by three points. I think it is going to be a repeat as the underdog in this matchup is 7-2 against in the last 9 games. The Jags might win, and I hope they do, but I think this another game that plays to a close score within the 3.5 points.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5)
This is usually one of the more entertaining games of the year. Three of the last four meetings went over 45 total points and last November the score was 37-31 with the 9ers winning. 9ers also took last year’s season opener. So, if you’re in Vegas, take the over which is currently sitting at 41.5 points. As for who will win? I think the Cardinals might contend for the Division title this year (even over the Seahawks). The 9ers get the Mike Martz Offense Era started. Just ask Detroit how well THAT worked out for them over the last couple of years. Take the Cards in a highly entertaining, high scoring game.

The MNF Games
Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at Green Bay Packers
The telling stats: The road team is 10-2 against the spread and the underdog is 16-5 against the spread. So that is the Vikes and the Vikes. Take the Vikes to not only cover but win it. Watch the Pack start the where is Bret chants.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+1.5)
Major game here. Neither team knows which of their three to four running backs they will utilize and that is going to slow this game down. The biggest telling stat that I see is the under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings. Plus, the 1.5 spread shows a low scoring game. The other big stat is that the Raiders are 8-22 against the spread in their last 30 home games. Ouch. I say that trend continues and the Broncos find a way to edge the number for a win.

My Super Bowl prediction?
The Lions win the Super Bowl, of course. But I say that every year. But they just might do it this time because this is the first year in the last 20 years or so that I didn’t put $10 down on that bet. So, World, look out.