NFL Week 2 Prognostication

There aren’t a lot of games I feel good about this week. When that happens I tend to take a lot of favorites. Not sure that is good, though.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+2.5)
Yes. I pick the Lions every week because I am a Detroit homer. However, I’m hanging my hat on the fact the home team is 16-5-1 against the spread in the last 22 games. Given the fact the over is 6-2 over the last 8 meetings in Detroit this is going to be a burner. The Lions have a decent offense and the defense is better than last week’s debacle (I hope). The Packers, I believe, come back to earth a bit and might struggle with their ground game this week as their Running Backs are hurt. Take the Lions and the points (and hope the Lions don’t fall behind by 21 points in the first quarter again).

San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) at Seattle Seahawks
A handful of telling stats with the first on being the 9ers are 2-9 against the spread over the last 11 NFC games and 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 games overall. Now, the Seahawks are 7-3 against the spread vs. the last 10 NFC opponents. Also, the Seahawks ALWAYS beat the 9ers at home. It is just a matter of figuring out by how much. So, I’m taking the Seahawks to beat the 9ers by a touchdown (or more).

New England Patriots (+2.5) at New York Jets
The return of Spy-Gate. When was the last time you saw the Patriots as an underdog? Brady means THAT much? Or does Favre mean THAT much? Hmmm. The stat I jumped to is that the favorite is 7-2-1 against the spread over the last 10 games between these two teams. Granted, most of those have come from a Brady lead Patriots team. But I’m sticking with the stat. The New York Brets win by more than a field goal.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+5.5)
First of all, the Steelers are simply a better organization. That translates into 7-1-1 against the spread in the last 9 games with the Browns. Plus, the road team has gone 7-3-1 against the spread in the last 11 meetings. This is just a hunch game for me where I don’t see the Browns doing much. I actually thing the spread could be higher. I’m taking the Steelers in a blowout on Sunday night.